Shaver Lake, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

655
FXUS66 KHNX 240852
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
1252 AM PST Wed Dec 24 2025


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.KEY MESSAGES...

1. High confidence of a line of heavy rainfall, flooding, and
embedded strong thunderstorms arriving from 4am through 8am
Wednesday, moving from southwest to northeast, starting in Kern
County. Burn scars are at risk.

2. High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory areas impacted by downed
trees or power outages, moderate confidence. Travel will be
difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

3. 40% Probability of winds gusting to 30 mph from Merced to
Hanford, will also topple trees and move loose objects.

4. High confidence of heavy snow above 7000 feet, with snow load
impacts on roofs in the high Sierra. Travel will be impossible with
60 mph winds and whiteout conditions.

5. Wednesday afternoon will feature thunderstorms, with the highest
probability of severe weather from Fresno county and points
north.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A potent atmospheric river has arrived along the
southern California coast, bringing with it significant and
impactful precipitation as well as strong winds. Expanding upon
this threat, the Weather Prediction Center`s Excessive Rainfall
Outlook highlights the Kern County Mountains as the primary
threat area for heavy precipitation with a Slight risk (15-40%
chance). The risk increases to Moderate (40-70%) along the far
southern edge of the forecast area including I-5 through
Grapevine. Accumulated rainfall amounts continue to track steady
from the previous forecast cycle, with a reasonable high end
scenario for the high terrain nudging upward slightly. The
northern Sierra Nevada are poised to see at least (90% chance) 3
inches of precipitation with as much as 8.5 inches (10% chance)
at the higher end. The upper end potential tapers to 5 inches
(10% chance) at the southern end near Alta Sierra and Lake
Isabella. Significant spread remains at the far southern edge of
the forecast area with a reasonable best/worst case scenario
along I-5 being 1.5 to 6 inches of liquid precipitation.

Given this continued level of confidence, Flood Watches remain
in effect as we head into Wednesday morning. Expect rises along
waterways and minor flooding to occur due to this precipitation.
Recent burn scars, especially those due to the Basin, Garnet,
French, and Borel Fires, will be particularly vulnerable to
excessive runoff and debris flows. Also worth noting that the
Storm Prediction Center has the entire forecast area under a
General Thunder outlook with a low probability of thunderstorm
development in the forecast, and a marginal risk for severe
storms limited to the west of the forecast area at this time.

Snow levels continue to run fairly high given the warm airmass
accompanying this atmospheric river, with high confidence that
the snow level will sit at around 6800-7000 feet. This is
driving a high confidence forecast for multiple feet (3+) of
snow across much of the high Sierra, with confidence greatest
for the highest peaks. It is worth noting that there is a 25%
chance that the snow level could push as high as 8600 feet
during the day on Wednesday, especially further south along the
range.

Wednesday night into Thursday, the likelihood of valley
precipitation decreases greatly as we transition into more of a
terrain-forced mode. This will shift focus for continued
precipitation towards the terrain on Thursday, with early
indications of the storm wrapping up as early as Friday morning
(10% chance), but almost certainly over after midnight Saturday
into Sunday morning (90% chance). In the wake of this system,
ensemble forecasts are in good agreement with the deep upper
level trough closing off and sticking around into early next
week before shifting out of the area. This will lead to a period
of cooler temps and unsettled conditions into mid next week.


&&


.AVIATION...
VFR/MVFR conditions beginning to deteriorate in some areas,
with the potential for IFR conditions to develop early
Wednesday, especially between 10- 19Z driven by the period of
heaviest precipitation and low ceilings. Gusty southerly winds
continue through the period across the San Joaquin Valley. Upper
end wind gusts along the leading edge of this system are
forecast to crest as high as 40-50 kts, but quickly reduce to
20-25 kts across the valley after 14-15Z Wednesday.


&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
On Wednesday December 24 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning
Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno and Kern
Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Madera, Merced, and
Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and
Sequoia National Park and Forest.


&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for CAZ300>339.

High Wind Warning until 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ333>339.

Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for CAZ300>304-308-309-
313-314-316>318-324-332.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Friday for CAZ323-326>331.

&&

$$

Wessler

weather.gov/hanford